The Smashing Machine: Unraveling the Box Office Mystery
A24's Disappointing Venture
Despite the presence of Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, one of the world's biggest stars, A24's highly anticipated film, The Smashing Machine, fell flat at the box office. Directed by Benny Safdie, known for his work on Uncut Gems, this awards hopeful failed to live up to expectations, leaving many wondering what went wrong.
The Numbers Don't Lie
The Smashing Machine opened with a mere $6 million at the domestic box office, marking the lowest opening weekend for Johnson as the lead actor. This is particularly surprising given the film's reported $50 million budget, making it one of A24's most expensive productions. Pre-release predictions estimated a debut of at least $10 million, with some even suggesting it could reach $20 million. However, the biopic about UFC legend Mark Kerr fell far short of these projections.
Unraveling the Reasons
So, what caused this box office flop? How could A24, with all the right pieces in place, misjudge the market so significantly? And why didn't Johnson's star power translate into higher ticket sales?
Taylor Swift's Impact
A24 and The Rock may have underestimated the power of pop megastar Taylor Swift. Swift's surprise announcement of The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, coinciding with the release of her new album, The Life of a Showgirl, directly competed with The Smashing Machine's release date. While the audiences for these two events are likely distinct, Swift's release party opened to $33 million domestically and $46 million globally, leaving little room for The Smashing Machine to breathe.
Swift's dominance in the entertainment industry is undeniable. Her 2023 concert film, The Eras Tour, grossed nearly $250 million worldwide, with a significant portion coming from U.S. ticket sales. It's clear that Swift's presence overshadowed The Smashing Machine, despite the film's potential to appeal to a broader audience.
Buzz vs. Must-See
In today's market, getting audiences into theaters is a challenging task. For films like The Smashing Machine, which lack familiar IP or cinematic spectacle, generating a must-see buzz is crucial. Unfortunately, the film received a largely positive but not exceptional response, failing to reach that must-see status for many viewers.
Currently, The Smashing Machine holds a 73% critical approval rating and a 77% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, along with a B- CinemaScore. These numbers, while good, suggest that word-of-mouth buzz may not be strong enough to sustain the film's box office performance. A24 had hoped for a longer theatrical run as awards season approached, but the data suggests a remarkable turnaround is unlikely.
Adult-Oriented Films: A Tough Sell
The box office has struggled to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020, and one major reason is the shift in audience preferences. Films made for adults, original movies, and non-event fare are often watched from the comfort of home, with audiences only rushing to theaters for meaningful experiences. Going to the movies for the sake of it is no longer a common pastime.
The Smashing Machine, unfortunately, is a victim of this trend. Most people are unfamiliar with Mark Kerr, and the film wasn't explicitly marketed as a UFC movie for sports fans. A24's previous attempt, Civil War, a similarly expensive venture, debuted to $25.5 million and eventually grossed $127.3 million worldwide. While a gamble, Civil War offered cinematic qualities that encouraged viewers to see it on the big screen, something The Smashing Machine lacked for most audiences.
Other films released this year, such as Black Bag, Drop, and Bring Her Back, faced similar fates, opening with modest numbers and failing to gain significant traction. These results indicate the challenges The Smashing Machine faces, making theatrical profitability seem nearly impossible.
Limited Overseas Appeal
Johnson's global appeal has often been a saving grace for Hollywood films, with robust overseas box office returns bailing out domestic disappointments. The Jumanji and Fast & Furious franchises are prime examples. However, The Smashing Machine has limited appeal to international audiences, despite the popularity of the UFC.
Comparing it to A24's 2023 release, The Iron Claw, a wrestling drama inspired by real-life events, which opened to $4.8 million and finished with $45.2 million worldwide, highlights the challenges The Smashing Machine faces. Even pre-pandemic, The Wrestler grossed $44.7 million worldwide, with a significant portion coming from North American audiences. However, both of these films were made on a smaller budget.
The Smashing Machine features a highly praised performance by Johnson, and there was initial Oscar buzz surrounding his role. If Johnson receives a Best Actor nomination, the film's prospects could improve over time. However, without significant awards season recognition, it's difficult to find any positive outlook for the film.
Even The Rock's Star Power Has Limits
On paper, The Smashing Machine seemed like a solid idea. With Safdie's acclaim, Blunt's stellar performances, and the opportunity to showcase The Rock in a serious role unlike any he's done before, the film had potential. The $50 million budget seemed reasonable given the talent involved.
However, The Smashing Machine serves as a reminder of the current state of the industry. Johnson has admitted to chasing box office success throughout his career, and this film was meant to signal a new era. It seemed The Rock could draw audiences to a serious, non-franchise film, but these early results suggest otherwise.
While Johnson has helped make Moana 2 a billion-dollar hit and propelled the Fast & Furious franchise to new heights, his collective box office gross of $15 billion doesn't guarantee success for every film. Even with his star power, The Smashing Machine's early performance leaves little room for optimism.
The film's fate may already be sealed, which is a shame but a reality the industry must face. The Smashing Machine is currently in theaters, but its box office performance leaves much to be desired.
